Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with both parties avoiding direct kinetic strikes despite ongoing regional tensions. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 100% implied probability through the specified resolution date, meaning traders are pricing near-certainty that no US military action on Iranian soil will occur and be officially confirmed within the timeframe. This extreme pricing reflects the substantial gap between rhetorical posturing and actual military engagement between the two powers over recent months.

Historical precedent suggests caution with such extreme probabilities. The 2020 Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian ballistic missile strikes demonstrated how rapidly US-Iran dynamics can shift from apparent stability to kinetic conflict. However, the current environment differs materially: both sides have shown restraint despite provocations, with Iran's October 2024 missile barrage followed by mutual de-escalation rather than further escalation. The absence of direct US strikes on Iranian territory for an extended period, combined with diplomatic back-channels remaining open, underpins the market's confidence.

Traders should monitor several near-term catalysts. Regional proxy activities—particularly Houthi attacks on shipping and Israeli operations in Gaza—could trigger US responses that risk Iranian retaliation and counter-strikes. Official US government statements regarding military posture in the Middle East, scheduled Congressional briefings on Iran policy, and any confirmed Iranian nuclear programme developments warrant close attention. Reuters and official Pentagon statements remain primary sources for confirming whether kinetic actions have occurred, given the resolution criteria's requirement for official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting consensus.

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.