Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability, meaning Polymarket traders currently assess the likelihood of any single scoreline occurring as relatively low—a rational reflection of the combinatorial problem inherent in predicting precise match results. The conditional token structure on Polygon means each listed scoreline trades independently; the "Any Other Score" bucket captures all unlisted outcomes and typically commands the largest share of liquidity in exact-score markets.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets rarely settle on pre-match favourites. In World Cup group-stage matches, the distribution of results skews heavily toward the "Any Other Score" category, which typically resolves 65–75% of the time. Haiti's World Cup qualification record and Scotland's recent competitive form create asymmetric information: Haiti qualified through the CONCACAF region (defeating Jamaica in the playoff), whilst Scotland failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 and must navigate a competitive UEFA pathway. The 11% probability reflects uncertainty around both teams' squad depth and tactical preparation for a tournament-level fixture.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations through spring 2026, particularly injury updates and final roster selections. Scotland's recent Nations League and Euro qualifying results will provide the most recent calibration of their attacking and defensive capabilities. Haiti's preparation—including warm-up fixtures and any late coaching changes—remains less predictable given the federation's resource constraints. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 13 June could affect team freshness and tactical setup, influencing the likelihood of low-scoring versus high-scoring outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.