Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This Polymarket contract settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 0% YES probability reflects that the conditional token for any single exact scoreline is priced at negligible value; traders are instead distributing conviction across "Any Other Score," which captures the mathematical reality that hundreds of possible outcomes exist. On Polygon, USDC liquidity pools price each discrete outcome independently, and the current market structure suggests traders see no meaningful edge in backing any particular scoreline over the field.

Historical precedent shows group-stage matches between nations of disparate strength typically resolve to wider margins. Sweden's recent World Cup appearances (2018, 2022) saw them compete evenly in group play, whilst Tunisia has struggled to score consistently at tournament level, managing only three goals across their last two World Cup campaigns. The 2022 Qatar tournament saw Tunisia lose 0–5 to France and 1–0 to Australia, establishing a pattern of defensive vulnerability against organised opponents. Sweden's squad depth and set-piece threat would likely exploit such gaps.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026 and any late injury developments affecting Sweden's attacking options or Tunisia's defensive shape. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 14 June may affect team rotation decisions. The settlement window closes 15 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.