Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration faces Mentality Monster in the Lower Bracket quarterfinal 2 of The International 2026 Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a match initially set for 21 June at 10:00PM ET. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 10% implied probability for an Execration win, a stark divergence from Strafe Esports’ community forecast, which assigns Execration an 81.3% chance of victory based on their recent form and #18 world ranking[2]. Historical precedents in TI qualifiers show that lower-bracket teams often defy pre-match odds when momentum shifts late in the tournament; for instance, in 2024, several underdogs secured wins despite single-digit implied probabilities, driven by fatigue in higher-bracket opponents and tactical surprises that bookmakers failed to price[2].

Traders must monitor the official match schedule confirmation and any roster announcements, as delays beyond seven days or cancellations would trigger a 50-50 resolution. A key catalyst is the recent performance of Execration, who won two of their last five matches, suggesting resilience despite their lower-bracket status[2]. Additionally, the map handicap data from Bo3.gg indicates a strong expectation for Execration to win at least one map (1.21 probability), reinforcing their competitive viability even if the main outcome favours Mentality Monster[1]. No major news source has yet reported roster changes, but Liquipedia’s match history for Execration remains a critical reference for verifying team consistency before settlement[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.