UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this UFC flyweight prelim at **0% YES** on Allan Nascimento, which means the contract is effectively treating a Nascimento win as a near-impossible outcome on current information. Because the market settles on the UFC’s official result, holders are really trading the fight outcome that will be recorded on chain via USDC and Polygon conditional tokens, not the media narrative around the bout. The relevant live event is Allan Nascimento versus Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi, scheduled for 20 June 2026, with the market’s settlement window running through 21 June 2026 03:59:59.999 UTC.[6][7]

The historical frame is unusual because this pairing has already shown cancellation risk. UFC previously noted the bout was moved after illness involving Mitch Raposo, and Tapology still records an earlier cancellation reference for the matchup, which is the sort of fragility that can matter in a market whose non-finish outcomes include draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement past 4 July 2026 resolving to 50-50.[8][2] On the fighter side, Nascimento brings the cleaner pro record at 22-6, while Raposo enters at 10-3, so a 0% price on Nascimento implies traders are heavily discounting him despite the established matchup.[9][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are administrative rather than speculative: official UFC weigh-in clearance, any late medical withdrawal, and whether the bout remains on the prelims slate at all. UFC.com has already promoted Raposo’s appearance in the fight-week build-up, which supports the bout being intended for the card, but the price can still move sharply if UFC issues a replacement, cancellation, or bout-order update before the cage walk.[6][8] If the fight goes ahead as scheduled, the market should track the official result only; if it is scrapped or not scored under the market rules, the 50-50 branch becomes relevant instead.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.