UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Kevin Borjas vs Andre Lima as a near-certainty for **Andre Lima**, with the contract effectively at **100% YES** on the Lima side and almost no visible room for a Borjas upset. On Polymarket, that means traders are already marking the outcome in USDC on Polygon as if the only realistic settlement is a Lima win, even though the market still resolves strictly off the UFC’s official result and not betting-market sentiment.

That 100% reading sits well above the external fight market, where Lima was also a strong favourite before the bout, with prices around **-625 to -650** versus Borjas at **+455 to +475**. Comparable UFC prediction markets have usually only drifted to extreme implied probabilities when the favourite is viewed as a clear technical mismatch or when there is late confirmation of the bout going ahead as scheduled, so the current level mainly reflects confidence in the favourite rather than any special on-chain signal.

The main catalysts for traders are official UFC weigh-in, bout-sheet and post-fight result updates, because the market only settles from UFC confirmation. The contract description also matters: if the fight were ruled a no contest, not scored, cancelled, or pushed beyond the cut-off, it would resolve 50-50 instead of to either fighter. External listings show the bout on the UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas on 20 June 2026, so the key dependency is simply that the fight is completed and formally recorded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.