When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no live conviction that OpenAI will make GPT-5.6 generally available before the settlement window closes, even though the event itself would be settled on the calendar date in ET. On Polymarket, that means the position would pay out only if the release is recognised by the market’s rules and represented by the relevant conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC as the settlement currency.

The nearest historical frame is the recent GPT-5.x cadence: reported releases of GPT-5.4 in early March and GPT-5.5 in late April are being read by traders as evidence of a faster iteration cycle than earlier in the series, which is why some third-party coverage now treats late June as plausible for 5.6.[2] Against that, the current 0% price suggests the market is still discounting unverified chatter, including social posts claiming a June 25 launch date, which are not official confirmations.[1][7] For a Polymarket user, that gap between rumour and price is the key signal: the contract is being valued as if the burden of proof remains on OpenAI to ship, not on rumours to keep circulating.

The main catalysts are straightforward: an OpenAI announcement, a product update in ChatGPT or Codex, or a sign that a named release candidate has moved from internal testing into public availability. Recent reporting has also pointed to a broader June rollout and a “meaningful improvement” framing from OpenAI’s chief scientist, which would matter if it translates into a public release before the end of the window.[2][3] Traders should also watch for any schedule slips, since the market only settles on actual general availability, not on beta access, backend routing changes, or model leaks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.