Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices Trump's departure from the presidency by end-May 2026 at 0%, reflecting trader conviction that no removal mechanism will trigger within the settlement window. The contract trades on Polygon as conditional USDC tokens, settling binary on whether Trump resigns, is impeached and convicted, invokes the 25th Amendment voluntarily, or is otherwise removed from office. Any announcement of resignation or removal before 31 May 2026, 23:59 ET resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of the effective date stated in that announcement.

Presidential removal outside electoral defeat has occurred only once in US history: Richard Nixon's 1974 resignation following the Watergate investigation and near-certain impeachment conviction. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 mechanism—involuntary removal via Cabinet and Vice President—has never been invoked. Impeachment requires House majority and two-thirds Senate supermajority; conviction has never succeeded. These historical barriers explain why markets price permanent removal as exceptionally unlikely, even when presidents face legal exposure or political crisis.

Traders monitoring this contract should track ongoing federal indictments, state-level cases, and congressional dynamics. Trump faces multiple criminal prosecutions with trial schedules extending into 2025 and 2026. Health incidents, Cabinet instability, or significant electoral losses in 2024 midterms could alter removal probability, though markets have historically discounted such scenarios. Announcements from Trump's legal team, statements from senior Cabinet officials regarding the 25th Amendment, or formal impeachment proceedings would move the contract sharply.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.