UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira at **100% YES**, which means the contract is effectively treated as a done deal on Polygon, with traders already assigning the full USDC value to the Fili outcome in the conditional tokens set-up. That is a very different stance from the wider fight market: bookmakers have had Oliveira as a clear favourite, with prices around **-300** and **-278** in recent previews, while Fili has been listed as the underdog at **+240** and **+225**.[1][3]

The historical frame here is that Fili has often been read as the experienced name with durability and volume, while Oliveira has been priced as the more explosive finisher, and recent preview coverage has leaned towards the Brazilian by knockout or TKO.[2] In comparable UFC moneyline setups, that kind of edge can still be volatile once the bout actually starts, but the market’s **100% YES** print suggests Polymarket users are no longer trading the fight itself and are instead waiting on official UFC resolution, including any post-fight ruling that could convert the contract to **50-50** if the bout is called a no contest, draw, or is not scored.

The main catalysts now are procedural rather than sporting: official UFC confirmation of the result, any late change to the bout order, and whether the fight reaches the judges or ends inside the distance, because the market settles only from official UFC information. The bout has been scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi at the Apex, with listings placing it on 20 June 2026, so the practical watchpoint is the event itself and the UFC’s result posting rather than secondary scoreboards.[4][6][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.