Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 29?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou will experience late-May weather on 29 May 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or an expectation that traders will wait for nearer-term forecasts before committing USDC collateral to conditional tokens on Polygon. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database, which archives daily highs from the airport's official station—the reference point that will be consulted when the market resolves at 12:00 UTC on 29 May.

Guangzhou's May temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 35°C based on thirty-year normals, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent warming through late spring, though variability depends on whether tropical systems approach from the South China Sea. Historical precedent suggests the most probable outcomes concentrate in the 32–36°C range, making extreme cold or unusually cool days statistically unlikely for this date.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from China's Meteorological Administration and tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific from June onwards, as any system tracking toward southern China in late May could suppress temperatures. El Niño and La Niña phases also influence regional heat patterns; current oceanic conditions will become clearer as 2026 approaches. Wunderground's forecast tool will provide increasingly precise guidance in the weeks preceding settlement, allowing traders to reassess their positions as model consensus tightens.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 29? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.