Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong heat contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently treating a top reading above the relevant threshold as effectively not happening, with positions settled in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens. The event itself is straightforward: the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 22 June 2026 will determine which temperature band wins once the daily extract is published.

On context, the low price sits against a June backdrop that is usually warm to hot in Hong Kong, and the Observatory’s own June–August seasonal outlook points to **above-normal temperature** for the period.[2] AccuWeather’s June 2026 outlook for Hong Kong shows daily highs clustered around **88°F to 92°F** (roughly **31°C to 33°C**), which is consistent with a market that is already anchored around summer heat rather than an exceptional spike.[1] Comparable cases matter because the city has still been capable of extreme outcomes: South China Morning Post reported Hong Kong’s hottest day of the year so far at **34.6°C** earlier in the season, showing that the upper 30s remain a live, if less common, tail risk.[6]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s same-day updates, any heat warnings, and the timing of the final daily extract, because the contract cannot resolve until that published record is final.[5] The main on-chain point is that Polymarket holders do not need the underlying weather to be abstractly “hot” — they need the final Hong Kong Observatory figure to land inside the chosen range, so late shifts in official readings matter more than informal forecasts. A recent SCMP report on Hong Kong’s latest hot spell underlines how quickly temperatures can move into the mid-30s when conditions align, which is the kind of upside scenario that would matter if the day turns unexpectedly extreme.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.