Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29?

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Market context

On 29 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% on Polygon, reflecting that settlement data has not yet been published and conditional tokens cannot yet be valued against a known outcome. Once the Observatory publishes its daily extract showing the absolute daily maximum for that date, the market will resolve to whichever temperature band contains the recorded figure, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with historical daily maxima clustering around 30–32°C during late May. The city experiences pre-monsoon conditions in this period, characterised by warm, humid air masses moving northward from the South China Sea. Reviewing Observatory records from previous years shows that extreme heat above 35°C in late May is rare, occurring perhaps once every five to ten years, whilst readings below 27°C are equally uncommon. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that no outcome will occur—the market simply awaits the factual measurement.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule for daily extracts, typically released within days of the measurement date. Broader weather patterns in late May 2026 will depend on monsoon onset timing and any tropical systems affecting the region. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 29 May, but resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes its data, which may take several days beyond the measurement date itself.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.