Highest temperature in Moscow on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Moscow's weather on 29 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Vnukovo International Airport, as measured by NOAA. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting either incomplete market formation or a technical settlement window constraint. Traders settling positions will need NOAA's official historical data, accessible via the National Weather Service portal, with resolution contingent on the first data point from 30 May appearing in the system.

Late May in Moscow typically sees daily highs between 20–25°C, though the city experiences considerable year-to-year variation. Historical May records show temperatures occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells, whilst cooler years produce highs closer to 16–18°C. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds, or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing USDC on Polygon-settled conditional tokens.

Russian meteorological agencies publish forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with European weather models (ECMWF, DWD) typically converging on May conditions by mid-month. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric patterns—specifically whether high-pressure systems establish over Eastern Europe or Atlantic lows drive cooler air eastward. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 29 May, meaning traders have only until midday Moscow time to react to actual temperature readings before NOAA's final daily maximum is locked in.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Moscow on May 29? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.