Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against historical data from Weather Underground. The market currently prices at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC settlement; traders holding positions across multiple temperature brackets can hedge exposure or arbitrage perceived mispricings between ranges.

Late May in Seoul typically sees temperatures between 24–28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from 2015–2024 shows only three instances of temperatures exceeding 29°C on this date, making higher ranges statistically unlikely. The 0% probability assigned to at least one range suggests either that range is genuinely implausible or that liquidity is concentrated elsewhere in the market structure. Traders should examine which specific temperature bracket the crowd has actually priced, as the aggregate 0% may mask uneven distribution across options.

South Korea's meteorological agency issues seasonal forecasts in April, with updates through May. The East Asian summer monsoon onset typically occurs in early June, meaning late May remains in a transitional period where high-pressure systems from the south occasionally push temperatures upward. Recent years have shown increasing volatility in spring weather patterns; traders monitoring the Korea Meteorological Administration's May forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña updates will have better visibility on whether conditions favour warmer or cooler outcomes for that specific date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.