Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Polymarket contract pricing this event at 0% reflects traders' current assessment that Seoul's highest temperature on 30 May 2026 will fall outside the upper temperature bands available for settlement. The market resolves based on the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data. Traders are effectively betting against an unusually hot day in late May, when Seoul typically experiences warm but not extreme conditions ahead of the summer monsoon season.

Seoul's May climate patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from the past two decades indicates maximum temperatures on 30 May have ranged between 24°C and 32°C, with most years clustering around 26–28°C. The 0% probability assigned to higher temperature brackets suggests the market has priced in a typical late-spring day rather than a heat anomaly. Comparable late-May weather events in Seoul rarely produce temperatures exceeding 30°C, though such occurrences are not unprecedented; the city experienced a 31°C maximum on 30 May in 2018.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding high-pressure systems or heat waves. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift baseline temperatures upward or downward. Additionally, any significant volcanic activity or atmospheric anomalies in the preceding months might influence late-spring temperatures across East Asia, though such events remain difficult to predict with current models.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.