Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at zero, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual temperature data becomes available—a technical artefact of how conditional tokens resolve once the event date passes. Traders are effectively pricing uncertainty about late May conditions in one of China's most densely populated regions, where humidity and urban heat effects create measurable daily variation.

Historical May temperatures at Shanghai Pudong show a consistent pattern: average highs cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 33°C during early heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 May records indicate that temperatures above 35°C remain uncommon for this month, though not unprecedented. Comparable years suggest the most probable outcome falls within the 28–32°C range, where roughly 60–70% of May days settle. The current zero probability assigned to this market reflects no active trading rather than genuine conviction that all temperature brackets are impossible.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Shanghai's seasonal weather patterns as May 2026 approaches, particularly any early monsoon activity or high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures above historical norms. China's meteorological bureau publishes monthly forecasts in April, which typically provide directional guidance on whether the coming month will run warmer or cooler than average. Urban development in Shanghai's Pudong district continues expanding, potentially affecting microclimatic readings at the airport station itself.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.