Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Wellington International Airport June 21 high at **0% YES** today, so the contract is effectively saying there is no live expectation that the day’s maximum will land in a higher Celsius band. Because settlement keys off the **highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station** on **21 June 2026** from Wunderground, the trade is really about the day’s realised airport observation, not a city-wide comfort level or forecast headline. The market settles in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the event resolved through the conditional-token structure once the Wunderground daily history page is finalised.

The historical frame is straightforward: June is normally cool in Wellington, with average daily highs around the mid-50s Fahrenheit, or roughly the low teens Celsius, and cloud cover is common. Wunderground-style daily highs at this airport often sit close to that seasonal baseline, so a market priced at zero implies the crowd sees the available temperature bands as already absorbing the likely outcome. BBC Weather’s current airport observation shows **15°C** with strong south-southwesterly wind, while its Sunday forecast points to **thundery showers** and a low of **9°C** / high of **18°C**, which is consistent with a modest winter range rather than an extreme spike.

For traders, the main catalysts are the live airport temperature trace through the day, any sudden shift in wind or sun exposure, and how quickly Wunderground’s daily high updates after the event. Wellington’s forecast can change quickly with passing showers and wind shifts, but the relevant dependency is the airport station reading itself rather than broader regional forecasts. If temperatures briefly lift into a higher band before showers return, that single printed high is what matters for settlement, so intraday observation timing is the key variable rather than the end-of-day average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.