Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a June high in Seoul above the relevant range as effectively impossible at the moment. On Polymarket, that quote reflects the cost of **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcome exposure represented through conditional tokens rather than a direct bet on the weather itself. The settlement source is the day’s highest temperature at **Incheon Intl Airport Station** on Wunderground, so the key question is not a calendar-day average but the single warmest reading recorded before the window closes.

For context, late-June Seoul typically sits in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, with ordinary June highs often around **19–28°C** and a gradual rise in humidity as the month progresses.[1][2][8] Forecast services for June 2026 have pointed to highs in the low 30s Fahrenheit-to-Celsius equivalent range, with one current Seoul forecast showing **30°C** as a day-specific maximum and another monthly outlook putting June highs broadly between **82°F and 91°F**.[4][7] That framing matters because a market at 0% is usually pricing a combination of seasonality and the fact that the contract resolves on a specific airport station reading, not a citywide average.

A trader watching this should focus on the near-term **Korea Meteorological Administration** forecasts and any updates to the local heat, cloud and rain pattern, since June in Korea is also the lead-in to the rainy season and that can cap daytime maxima.[2][5][7] The most relevant dependency is whether clearer, hotter conditions develop over the airport area before the settlement cut-off, versus a cloudier or wetter setup that keeps the top reading lower. In practice, Polymarket liquidity will react first to forecast revisions, then to the actual intraday temperature profile at Incheon, which is the figure that determines how the conditional tokens settle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.