Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, even though the market is built around the highest thermometer reading recorded on 21 June and settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. The contract does not depend on a citywide average or a forecast headline; it resolves from the Wunderground daily history page for LaGuardia Airport, so the live trade is really about the single highest reading posted there before the following day’s first data point locks the result.[1]

For context, New York City’s late-June highs are often close enough to the low- to mid-80s Fahrenheit that a one- or two-degree shift can move the outcome into a different bracket. Polymarket’s own listing has pointed traders towards highs near 79–84°F, with the market previously clustering most heavily around 82–83°F and 84–85°F on nearby dates, while AccuWeather’s June outlook for New York showed daily highs ranging from 75° to 88° and an average June high of 83°.[1][6] The long-run June 21 record cited by Extreme Weather Watch is 97°F, which frames the upside tail if heat builds more aggressively than expected.[8]

The main catalysts are the local forecast path into the afternoon, any heat advisory or excessive-heat messaging from the National Weather Service, and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or rain suppresses the peak at LaGuardia rather than elsewhere in the city.[1][9] Because the market resolves on the airport station, not Central Park, traders are effectively watching airport-specific conditions and the final Wunderground update, with the first datapoint for 22 June deciding when the contract can no longer change.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.