Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

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Market context

The highest temperature Seoul will reach on 29 May 2026 remains entirely unpriced on Polymarket, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability across all temperature bands. Settlement hinges on the daily maximum recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, converted to Celsius via Wunderground's historical database. This absence of trading activity reflects the market's distance from resolution—nearly eighteen months away—rather than any genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will occur that day.

Seoul's late May climate sits firmly in late spring, with historical data from the past two decades showing daily highs clustering between 24°C and 28°C during this period. The 2023 maximum for 29 May reached 26.1°C; in 2022 it was 25.8°C. Anomalous heat waves do occur—2018 saw 30.2°C on this date—but such extremes remain statistical outliers. The seasonal pattern is stable enough that meteorological forecasts from May 2026 will carry meaningful signal, though current long-range models remain unreliable at this distance.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any significant climate pattern shifts in East Asia during spring 2026, particularly the timing of the East Asian monsoon onset and any Pacific warming events that could drive early-season heat northward. Korean Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, will provide the most actionable intelligence as the settlement date approaches. Near-term pricing will likely remain dormant until April 2026, when ten-day forecasts become actionable and liquidity typically concentrates on weather markets with imminent resolution windows.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.