Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Shanghai Pudong Airport high-temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which leaves the market implying no meaningful chance that the day’s maximum will land in a YES range. On Polymarket, that means traders are swapping USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the price is a direct read on where the crowd thinks the recorded peak at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will settle by the market’s noon UTC resolution cut-off.

For context, Shanghai’s June climate normally supports warm afternoons rather than extreme heat: WeatherSpark puts average daily highs at Shanghai Pudong in June in a band that rises from about 77°F to 83°F, with rare excursions above 92°F. The site also describes the hot season as running from mid-June into mid-September, which means late-June heat is common enough that a single hot burst is not unusual, but the market’s current 0% price suggests traders are not paying up for an outlier high at the airport station.[1][4] Forecast products are also pointing to a warm but unsettled day, with AccuWeather showing an afternoon thunderstorm risk and a high near 79°F for 22 June, which would sit well below the more extreme ranges that typically move these markets.[6]

The key trader watchpoints are the day’s actual airport observations on Wunderground, because this market settles on the highest recorded temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station rather than city-wide averages or alternative airports. In practice, a midday heating spike, delayed convective storm development, or a brief clearing after morning rain can all shift the day’s maximum, but once the noon UTC settlement window closes, later warmth will not matter. The National Weather Service time-series for ZSPD shows the airport temperature profile updating through the day, which is useful for checking whether the contract is drifting towards a higher bracket as the afternoon develops.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.