Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 29?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 29 May 2026 will determine which temperature band resolves this market. The settlement mechanism uses Wunderground's historical data feed from Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the city's primary weather station, capturing the single highest reading across the entire calendar day in Celsius. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme illiquidity, a data feed issue, or that traders have not yet priced the full range of plausible outcomes for late May in Shanghai.

Late May sits within Shanghai's transition into early summer, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 38°C on this date are rare but not unprecedented; the city experiences roughly one or two days per May decade where the mercury climbs into the upper 30s. The current 0% crowd probability across all brackets is unusual given Shanghai's consistent warm-season patterns and suggests the market may be awaiting initial price discovery rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will fall within normal seasonal bounds.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts from late April onwards, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting the Yangtze River Delta region. El Niño or La Niña conditions, typically reported by November, influence summer temperatures across eastern China. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 29 May, giving traders a narrow window to react to actual conditions reported by Wunderground's live feed.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.