# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours, and Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome at 59%, implying traders expect the video to exceed a particular threshold. The settlement window closes mid-June 2026, creating a defined timeframe for the event to occur; if no video materialises by 30 June, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

MrBeast has consistently demonstrated viewership velocity that places him among YouTube's most-watched creators. His recent uploads typically accumulate 50–100 million views within 24 hours, though this varies considerably based on content type and promotional strategy. Historical performance shows his challenge-format videos and collaborations tend toward the higher end of this range, whilst shorter or experimental content sometimes underperforms. The 59% YES probability suggests the market anticipates a mid-to-high range outcome, reflecting his established audience engagement patterns rather than an exceptional or anomalous result.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MrBeast's upload schedule and any announced collaborations or special projects, as these directly influence first-day velocity. Seasonal factors matter—uploads during peak viewing periods (weekends, school holidays) typically perform stronger. Changes to YouTube's algorithm or recommendation system could shift baseline expectations, though such shifts would affect all major creators similarly. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions settle against actual view counts reported through YouTube's public metrics, making real-time monitoring essential once a video posts.

Methodology

This page reviews # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.