France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s **3% YES** price implies a low chance that France and Iraq land on one of the contract’s enumerated exact scores in regulation time, with settlement tied to the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage only. The market is written in on-chain terms, so the position is held in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, and the key practical point is that extra time and penalties do not count for resolution.

The historical frame is straightforward: exact-score markets are usually priced far below outright win markets because they require a very specific outcome, not just the right team. That matters even more in a mismatch, where the favourite can win by several different scorelines. In the live pricing elsewhere, France is a heavy favourite, with ESPN showing France around -700 on the moneyline and the draw at +750, while the total is set near 3.5 goals[2]. FOX Sports and Yahoo also list France at short odds and Iraq as a sizeable underdog[1][3]. For a Polymarket trader, that kind of shape tends to support a broad spread of France win scores rather than one precise number.

The main catalysts are the official team sheets, any late injury or rotation news, and the actual flow of the match, because a red card, early goal, or cautious first half can shift which exact scores remain live. FIFA has the match listed for 22 June 2026 at 21:00 UTC in Philadelphia, so the contract should follow that fixture unless the schedule changes[5]. If the game is delayed or rescheduled, the market stays open until completion; if it were cancelled without a make-up, the wording suggests a different resolution path, so traders should watch FIFA and tournament scheduling updates closely[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.